Conspiracy Size

(FTB stderr) – Marcus Ranum:

I suspect that there is an optimal and a peak conspiracy size, beyond which it becomes nearly impossible to keep a secret.

That’s one of the reasons why I tend to disbelieve conspiracy theories that involve a lot of moving parts. I completely suck at math but if I recall how this is calculated, you take the probability that any individual will leak, and then the probability your secret remains secret is the combined probability that all the individuals don’t leak. The way I think of it (because I suck at math) is that you make a saving throw on your Leak Table every year and sooner or later you’re going to come up ’01’. …

stderr 2017/03/07 conspiracy

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